Sunday, December 31, 2006

The Granddaddy of Them All Preview

Michigan vs USC (+1)
This is it. The last bowl game for the Pac-10, and a disappointment for both teams to be playing in it. The Trojans had pipe dreams of playing Ohio State in the national championship game, until they remembered they had to score on the Bruins if they wanted to make it there. The Wolverines were hoping to play the Buckeyes a second time, to see if Ohio State truly is the better team on a neutral field. Instead, Florida hopped into #2 and Michigan has to play USC in Pasadena as a consolation. Really, it’s the best consolation in college football, but neither team can win the national title this year which truly is anticlimactic. But for the rest of us, at least it’s the Pac-10 vs Big Ten in the Rose Bowl instead of seeing LSU or Notre Dame playing out here.

The Michigan Wolverines have a dangerous offense. Chad Henne doesn’t turn the ball over and isn’t afraid to spread it around either, with Mario Manningham and Steve Breaston being his favorite targets. But Mike Hart is the focal point of the Michigan offense. His 1500 rushing yards this season place him eighth in country, though he does have the lowest yards per carry of any back in the top 10. That said, he still averaged 5 ypc and he should get some holes to run through courtesy of Jake Long and the Wolverine O-line. That’ll give him the chance to meet Rey Maualuga and company at the second level. If Hart can get past them and into the Trojan secondary, USC will struggle to win this game. While Henne and Manningham can be a dangerous QB-WR duo, Michigan relies on their rushing attack much more. As long as USC can keep Hart from moving the chains too frequently, they can contain the Wolverine offense.

Michigan’s LaMarr Woodley and Alan Branch probably make up the best DE-DT tandem in the country. That’s the bad news for the Trojans and their offensive line. After seeing what UCLA’s DEs were capable of in USC’s final regular season game, Woodley must be chomping at the bit to go against Kyle Williams. But if USC can keep Booty from getting pressured too much, he shouldn’t have trouble finding Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett open down the field. The good news for USC is that Michigan’s defense can be scored upon if you have a good offense. All you have to do is look at the OSU game to see that. So even seeing how dominating Michigan’s run D was most of the season, a good offensive line can still open up holes and give the running backs room to break off some long runs. Sam Baker and Ryan Kalil will have to create space for Moody, Gable and Washington if they want to keep the Wolverine defense off balance.

As far as special teams go, Michigan doesn’t have the greatest special teams, but neither do the Trojans so we’ll consider this one a wash, though Troy Van Blarcom and his mad kickoff skillz will be missed.

So the greatest disappointment bowl of all time is about to happen. Michigan wants to prove it was cheated out of a spot in the title game and USC wants to prove it isn’t as bad as UCLA made them look. The Trojans also haven’t lost back to back games since the 2001 season. So come on Pete. Show us your stones and don’t let this streak end this season as well.

The Pick: USC (+1)

And yes, I am a homer, but I think USC should win.

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