Monday, March 12, 2007

And Stanford Weasels Their Way In

Boy, are the Cardinal lucky. Syracuse, Drexel and Air Force all missed making the cut, but Stanford's 18 wins were enough to get them in. Granted, it's only an 11 seed and they have to play Louisville in Kentucky (How did that happen?), but they still have a chance. Bruins have to be bummed they are only a 2 seed, but if you lose two in a row to end the season, you can't be too upset you missed that #1 seed. Oregon and WSU are both 3 seeds, while Arizona somehow managed to fanagle an 8 seed out of the selection committee. The Wildcats are talented, but only went 8-9 down the stretch and were only winning close games. Thought they would get lower, now if they make it past Purdue, they have to play Florida. Good luck. The biggest shocker to me though, was USC getting a 5 seed, despite getting destroyed by Oregon in the Pac-10 Tourney finale. Thought they were going to be a 7 or 8, so the 5 is a nice surprise. Until you realize that 12s beat 5s all the time, and that is the seed USC got. Yay. But, as long as they can beat Arkansas, they have a shot at playing Texas and getting revenge on the Longhorns for having Vince Young a year ago.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Pac-10 Tourney

We're a little late to the party on covering this, though we have been watching the tournament. Still can't believe UCLA lost to Cal(!) on Thursday, but evidently they needed a wakeup call. Ayinde Ubaka led the charge at the end of the fourth quarter and in overtime with 29 points for the Bears. UCLA could have avoided the loss if they had made their free throws. They had 29 attempts, but only made 15, which is a terrible performance for anyone, let alone a national championship contender. The loss also means they probably lost their shot at a 1 seed, since Ohio State, Kansas, Wisconsin, Memphis and Florida are all still alive in their conference tournaments. Being a 2 seed is a nice consolation prize though.

As for some of the other games, Arizona probably shouldn't have lost by 19 to the Ducks, but they allowed Oregon to make 11 threes and couldn't make their own shots. I will be shocked if the Wildcats are higher than a 10 seed and wouldn't be surprised to see them bow out in the first round.

Oregon though, has been a pleasant surprise lately. After losing five of their first six games in February, they rebounded to beat the Cougars roll off another four straight wins. They manhandled Arizona and Cal, and have a chance to win the Pac-10 for the first time since riding the Lukes to the 2003 championship.

Speaking of 2003, the 2007 championship will be a rematch of the 2003 final, as Oregon will again play USC. The Trojans, who upset the Cougars last night, appear to have regained their early season form, at least for the time being. After going to OT against Stanford to start the tournament, USC had a much more impressive game against WSU. Gabe Pruitt was unstoppable for the Trojans, as he scored 26 points and made six of his seven three-point attempts. The defense was also there, as they held WSU to 36% from the floor.

This afternoon's game will be exciting. Oregon and USC both need wins to move up their seeding in the tournament. USC will either become the first team to lose the Pac-10 Tournament three times, or the sixth team in as many years to win it. A win could also move USC up to a 5 seed, which means they would probably lose to some lowly 12 in the first round. So for their sake, let's hope they only get a 6 and watch someone else flame out in the tournament's traditional upset spot. Oregon could also get a bump in seed if they win decisively.

So my seeding predictions if Oregon wins:

2 - UCLA
3 - Oregon
4 - WSU
8 - USC
11 - Arizona

And when USC actually does win:

2 - UCLA
4 - WSU
4 - Oregon
6 - USC
11 - Arizona

Enjoy the finale!

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Trojans Down, Wildcats Up

Not a good week for the Trojans. With a chance to move up to a 4 or 5 seed, USC tanked both its games in the Apple State. The Huskies downed them easily on Thursday in Seattle, thanks to the long range bombing of Ryan Appleby. They kept it close in Pullman on Saturday, going to a pair of overtimes before losing by two points to the Cougars. If USC had managed to keep Aron Baynes from making a shot just once, they could have won. But, he made all 10 of his shots and USC drops from the rankings yet again this season.

Washington had a great week. They destroyed USC and followed that surprise with an even bigger upset of #2 UCLA. And they looked good doing it. The Bruins shot only 31% from the field and the Huskies outrebounded them by 14. That was enough of a showing to even get a vote or two in the AP poll this week.

Even with the loss to UW, UCLA more or less locked up a #1 seed this weekend with the win over WSU. As long as they don't get embarrassed in the Pac-10 tourney, the Bruins will have themselves a favorable draw in the NCAA tourney.

Arizona probably locked up a spot in the tourney with their two victories this weekend, and much like UCLA, need to keep up the pace in the conference tourney to get the seed they want.